Tag Archives: 2012 Election

Gallup Poll Reveals 4 Reasons It Got The 2012 Election Wrong

Source: Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy / The Huffington Post

WASHINGTON — Gallup, the polling firm that took a major hit last year for finding better results for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney than other pollsters found, offered a detailed mea culpa on Tuesday, citing a confluence of small issues that tipped its results rightward.

Over the final weeks of the 2012 campaign, Gallup’s daily tracking poll showed President Barack Obama consistently trailing Romney, including a final survey that gave Romney a 1-point edge. Instead, Obama won by nearly 4 percentage points. While Gallup was far from the only polling firm to call the election wrong, its visibility and reputation, as well as the size of its error, made it one of the most notable.

On Tuesday, at a press briefing and in a 17-page report, Gallup named four factors that lessened the accuracy of its polling. As expected, no one problem alone accounted for its difficulties in 2012.

“None of these factors are large, in and of themselves,” said Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport, “in the sense that they are not moving the numbers 10 points, 5 points.” However, each of the four nudged Gallup’s numbers slightly in Romney’s favor, making them collectively “significant enough,” according to Newport, “that we think they made a significant difference in our overall estimate of who was going to win the presidential election last fall.”

To read this article in its entirety visit The Huffington Post.

PolitiFact Awards ‘Lie Of The Year’ To Romney Jeep Ad

Source: Angie Drobnic Holan / PolitiFact.com

It was a lie told in the critical state of Ohio in the final days of a close campaign — that Jeep was moving its U.S. production to China. It originated with a conservative blogger, who twisted an accurate news story into a falsehood. Then it picked up steam when the Drudge Report ran with it. Even though Jeep’s parent company gave a quick and clear denial, Mitt Romney repeated it and his campaign turned it into a TV ad.

And they stood by the claim, even as the media and the public expressed collective outrage against something so obviously false.

DON’T MISS: THE BIGGEST DAMN LIE: Mitt Romney’s Misleading GM, Chrysler Ads (VIDEO)

People often say that politicians don’t pay a price for deception, but this time was different: A flood of negative press coverage rained down on the Romney campaign, and he failed to turn the tide in Ohio, the most important state in the presidential election.

PolitiFact has selected Romney’s claim that Barack Obama “sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China” at the cost of American jobs as the 2012 Lie of the Year.

To read this article in its entirety visit PolitiFact.com.

John Sununu: Obama Won Because Of Voters Dependent On Government Programs

Source: Carrie Healey / theGrio

During a fundraising and awards dinner with two other Republican former governors, Sununu stated: “They aggressively got out the base of their base, the base of their base that’s dependent, to a great extent economically, on government policy and government programs,” reports the Concord Monitor.

This post-election statement is eerily similar to Mitt Romney’s statement before the election about the “47 percent.”

Romney was unknowingly recorded stating that “there are 47 percent who are with [Obama], who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them.”

Along with Sununu, former governors Steve Merrill and Craig Benson also spoke.  Agreeing with everything Sununu said, Merrill added Obama’s re-election was not due to his performance, but rather “his personality, particularly in campaign mode.”

To read this article in its entirety visit theGrio.

Petraeus In 2011 Fox News Interview: ‘I’m Not Running’ For President (AUDIO)

In a 2011 recording obtained by The Washington Post, Fox News’s K.T. McFarland, acting as Fox News president Roger Ailes’s proxy, talks to then-General David Petraeus about his presidential ambitions for 2012 and beyond, seeming to encourage the general to think twice about running for the White House.

Fox News Chief Urged Petraeus To Run For President

Source: CBS News

Fox News chairman Roger Ailes urged Gen. David Petraeus to run for president last year, according to a digital recording of a conversation between Petraeus and an Ailes emissary obtained by the Washington Post.

The Post’s Bob Woodward reported that Petraeus, then the U.S. Commander in Afghanistan, was contacted by Kathleen T. McFarland, a Fox news national security analyst and former Pentagon aide, during McFarland’s visit to Afghanistan in 2011 and was given a message from Ailes: If President Obama offered Petraeus the job of CIA Director instead of the chairmanship of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Ailes urged Petraeus to decline the offer, resign from the administration, and run for president as a Republican.

McFarland implied that Ailes, who was a Republican political consultant for decades prior to running Fox News, could resign from his position at Fox to run Petraeus’ presidential campaign. McFarland and Petraeus also discussed the possibility that Rupert Murdoch, the head of Fox News parent Newscorp, would “bankroll” the campaign, according to the Post.

Petraeus did not heed Ailes’ advice, saying he would entertain the idea of being CIA Director if Obama offered him he job, which the president did a few weeks later. Petraeus was sworn in as director on September 6, 2011, a post he held until November 9, 2012, when he resigned due to fallout from an extramarital affair with his biographer.

To read this article in its entirety visit CBS News.

$150 Million Bust: Sheldon Adelson Spent Far More On Campaign Than Previously Known

Source: Peter H. Stone / The Huffington Post

WASHINGTON — Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson vowed to spend as much as $100 million to defeat President Barack Obama and help the GOP take control of Congress. According to two GOP fundraisers with close ties to the Las Vegas billionaire, he made good on that promise — and then some. Adelson ultimately upped the ante, spending closer to a previously unreported $150 million, the fundraisers said.

Adelson, a fierce critic of Obama’s foreign and domestic policies, has said that his humongous spending was spurred chiefly by his fear that a second Obama term would bring “vilification of people that were against him.” As that second term begins, Adelson’s international casino empire faces a rough road, with two federal criminal investigations into his business.

This coming week, Adelson plans to visit Washington, according to three separate GOP sources familiar with his travel schedule. While here, he’s arranged Hill meetings with at least one House GOP leader in which he is expected to discuss key issues, including possible changes to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the anti-bribery law that undergirds one federal probe into his casino network, according to a Republican attorney with knowledge of his plans.

During the election, Adelson told Politico that the Justice Department investigation, and the way he felt treated by prosecutors, was a primary motivation for his investment in Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and other GOP candidates. He put his money where his mouth was. The two GOP fundraisers, both with strong ties to Adelson, said that the casino mogul dished out close to $150 million, including between $30 million and $40 million to the Karl Rove-founded Crossroads GPS and at least $15 million to grassroots efforts with financial links to Charles and David Koch. Among other major beneficiaries of Adelson’s largess were the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which received almost $5 million from Adelson, and the Republican Jewish Coalition, which got the bulk of its $6.5 million budget from him, the fundraisers said.

To read this article in its entirety visit The Huffington Post.

THE NEW REPUBLIC: The Internal Polls That Made Mitt Romney Think He’d Win

Source: Noam Scheiber / The New Republic

It’s no secret that the Romney campaign believed it was headed for victory on Election Day. A handful of outlets have reported that Team Romney’s internal polling showed North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia moving safely into his column and that it put him ahead in a few other swing states. When combined with Ohio, where the internal polling had him close, Romney was on track to secure all the electoral votes he needed to win the White House. The confidence in these numbers was such that Romney even passed on writing a concession speech, at least before the crotchety assignment-desk known as “reality” finally weighed in.

Less well-known, however, are the details of the polls that led Romney to believe he was so close to the presidency. Which other swing states did Romney believe he was leading in, and by how much? What did they tell him about where to spend his final hours of campaigning? Why was his team so sanguine about its own polling, even though it often parted company with the publicly available data? In an exclusive to The New Republic, a Romney aide has provided the campaign’s final internal polling numbers for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which the aide obtained from the campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse. Newhouse himself then discussed the numbers with TNR.

The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire. According to Newhouse, the campaign polled daily, then combined the results into two-day averages. The numbers for each day along with the averages are displayed in the chart below, followed by the actual result in each state:

The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4. “I’m not sure what the answer is,” Newhouse told me, explaining that his polls were a lot more accurate in most of the other swing states. “The only ones we had that really seemed to be off were Colorado—a state that even Obama’s people tweeted they thought it was going to be one of their closest states—and the New Hampshire numbers, which seemed to bounce a lot during the campaign.”

To read this article in its entirety visit The New Republic.

Priebus: It’s Time For A ‘Full Autopsy’ Of 2012 (VIDEO)

Source: Ashley Killough / CNN

While many Republicans have already diagnosed their party’s problems after the presidential loss earlier this month, the chairman of the Republican National Committee is saying not so fast.

“I don’t think you can draw any quick conclusions other than the fact that we lost and we know that,” Reince Priebus said Tuesday on CNN’s “Piers Morgan Tonight,” the chairman’s first television interview since the election. “But in order to get back in the game, you’ve got to look at and do a full autopsy of what happened.”

Priebus said that over the next several weeks the party will dive deep into analysis of the recent election and come up with a four-year game plan tailored to avoid the mistakes it made this time.

Many Republicans in recent weeks have called for a “bigger tent” party that will be more representative of the country’s changing demographics. They cite President Barack Obama’s overwhelming victory among minority groups. Obama he took 71% of the Latino vote and 93% of the African American vote, according to CNN exit polls.

To read this article in its entirety visit CNN.